This setting lets you change the way you view articles. You can choose to have articles open in a dialog window, a new tab, or directly in the same window.
Open in Dialog
Open in New Tab
Open in same window

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics: Vol. 1 No. 1 (February 2009)

Expand

Quick Tools:

Print Article Summary
Export Citation
Sign up for Email Alerts Follow us on Twitter Subscription Information
(Institutional Administrator Access)

Explore:

AEJ: Micro - All Issues

AEJ: Micro Forthcoming Articles

Assessing Strategic Risk

Article Citation

Aumann, R. J., and J. H. Dreze. 2009. "Assessing Strategic Risk." American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 1(1): 1-16.

DOI: 10.1257/mic.1.1.1

Abstract

In recent decades, subjective probabilities have been increasingly applied to an adversary's choices in strategic games (SGs). In games against nature (GANs), the subjective probability of a state can be elicited from lotteries yielding utility 1 if that state obtains, 0 otherwise. But in SGs, making such a lottery available changes the game, and so the players' incentives. Here, we propose a definition of subjective probabilities in SGs that uses actually available strategies only. The definition applies also to GANs where the decision maker's options are restricted. The probabilities that emerge need not be unique, but expected utilities are unique. (JEL D81)

Article Full-Text Access

Full-text Article

Authors

Aumann, R. J. (Hebrew U Jerusalem)
Dreze, J. H. (CORE, Catholic U Louvain)

JEL Classifications

D81: Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

Comments

View Comments on This Article (0) | Login to post a comment


American Economic Journal: Microeconomics


Quick Tools:

Sign up for Email Alerts

Follow us on Twitter

Subscription Information
(Institutional Administrator Access)

Explore:

AEJ: Micro - All Issues

AEJ: Micro - Forthcoming Articles

Virtual Field Journals


AEA Member Login:


AEAweb | AEA Journals | Contact Us