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American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics: Vol. 3 No. 3 (July 2011)

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Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics

Article Citation

Hall, George J., and Thomas J. Sargent. 2011. "Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3(3): 192-214.

DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.3.192

Abstract

This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities. (JEL E23, E31, E43, G12, H63)

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Authors

Hall, George J. (Brandeis U)
Sargent, Thomas J. (NYU)

JEL Classifications

E23: Macroeconomics: Production
E31: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E43: Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G12: Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
H63: National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics


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