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Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 12 No. 2 (Spring 1998)
JEP Volume. 12, Issue 2 | 
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The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting
Article Citation
Diebold, Francis X. 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting."
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
12(2): 175-192.
DOI: 10.1257/jep.12.2.175
DOI: 10.1257/jep.12.2.175
Abstract
Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting, which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years, however, powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed and structural macroeconomic forecasting is poised for resurgence.
Article Full-Text Access
Full-text Article (Complimentary)
Authors
Diebold, Francis X. (U PA and NBER)
JEL Classifications
E17: General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation
C53: Forecasting and Other Model Applications
C53: Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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