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Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 10 No. 3 (Summer 1996)
JEP Volume. 10, Issue 3 | 
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Econometrics and Presidential Elections
Article Citation
Fair, Ray C. 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections."
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
10(3): 89-102.
DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.3.89
DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.3.89
Abstract
This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast.
Article Full-Text Access
Full-text Article (Complimentary)
Authors
Fair, Ray C. (Yale U)
JEL Classifications
D72: Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
E17: General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation
E17: General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation
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