This setting lets you change the way you view articles. You can choose to have articles open in a dialog window, a new tab, or directly in the same window.
Open in Dialog
Open in New Tab
Open in same window

American Economic Review: Vol. 97 No. 4 (September 2007)

AER Volume. 97, Issue 4 | leftPrevious ArticleNext Articleright

Expand

Quick Tools:

Print Article Summary Email Link to this Article Export Citation
Sign up for Email Alerts Follow us on Twitter

Explore:

AER - All Issues

AER Forthcoming Articles

Projection Bias in Catalog Orders

Article Citation

Conlin, Michael, Ted O'Donoghue, and Timothy J. Vogelsang. 2007. "Projection Bias in Catalog Orders." American Economic Review, 97(4): 1217-1249.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.97.4.1217

Abstract

Evidence suggests that people understand qualitatively how tastes change over time, but underestimate the magnitudes. This evidence is limited, however, to laboratory evidence or surveys of reported happiness. We test for such projection bias in field data. Using data on catalog orders of cold-weather items, we find evidence of projection bias over the weather—specifically, people's decisions are overinfluenced by the current weather. Our estimates suggest that if the order-date temperature declines by 30°F, the return probability increases by 3.95 percent. We also estimate a structural model to measure the magnitude of the bias. (JEL D12, L81)

Article Full-Text Access

Full-text Article

Additional Materials

Data Availability (13.69 KB)

Authors

Conlin, Michael
O'Donoghue, Ted
Vogelsang, Timothy J.


American Economic Review



AEA Member Login:


Quick Tools:

Email Link to this Issue

Sign up for Email Alerts

Follow us on Twitter

Subscription Information
(Institutional Administrator Access)

Explore:

AER - All Issues

AER - Forthcoming Articles

AEA Journals

Virtual Field Journals

AEAweb | AEA Journals | Contact Us