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American Economic Review: Vol. 97 No. 2 (May 2007)

Editors' Introduction (page viii)
Michelle DeBlasi and Ronald L. Oaxaca
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Foreword (page ix)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Articles

Richard T. Ely Lecture

Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk (pp. 1-30)
Lars Peter Hansen
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The Economics of Human Development

The Technology of Skill Formation (pp. 31-47)
Flavio Cunha and James Heckman
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Model Validation and Model Comparison

Ex Ante Policy Evaluation, Structural Estimation and Model Selection (pp. 48-52)
Kenneth I. Wolpin
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Testing the Mechanisms of Structural Models: The Case of the Mickey Mantle Effect (pp. 53-59)
Hanming Fang, Michael Keane, Ahmed Khwaja, Martin Salm and Dan Silverman
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Bayesian Model Comparison and Validation (pp. 60-64)
John Geweke
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Risk-Sharing and Cooperation in Social Networks

Reciprocity in Groups and the Limits to Social Capital (pp. 65-69)
Francis Bloch, Garance Genicot and Debraj Ray
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Risk Sharing Across Communities (pp. 70-74)
Yann Bramoullé and Rachel Kranton
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Risk Sharing and Network Formation (pp. 75-79)
Marcel Fafchamps and Flore Gubert
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Community Size and Network Closure (pp. 80-85)
Hunt Allcott, Dean Karlan, Markus M. Möbius, Tanya S. Rosenblat and Adam Szeidl
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Networked Interactions

Communication Networks: Knowledge and Decisions (pp. 86-91)
Antoni Calvó-Armengol and Joan de Martí
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Diffusion of Behavior and Equilibrium Properties in Network Games (pp. 92-98)
Matthew O. Jackson and Leeat Yariv
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Financial Networks (pp. 99-103)
Douglas M. Gale and Shachar Kariv
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Social Insurance Programs: Good for Workers? Good for the Labor Market?

Evaluating the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services System Using a Regression Discontinuity Approach (pp. 104-107)
Dan A. Black, Jose Galdo and Jeffrey A. Smith
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Unemployment Benefits, Unemployment Duration, and Post-Unemployment Jobs: A Regression Discontinuity Approach (pp. 108-112)
Rafael Lalive
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The Spike at Benefit Exhaustion: Leaving the Unemployment System or Starting a New Job? (pp. 113-118)
David Card, Raj Chetty and Andrea Weber
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Distinguishing Income from Substitution Effects in Disability Insurance (pp. 119-124)
David H. Autor and Mark G. Duggan
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Developments in Dynamic Mechanism Design

An Ascending Auction for Interdependent Values: Uniqueness and Robustness to Strategic Uncertainty (pp. 125-130)
Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris
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Designing Efficient Mechanisms for Dynamic Bilateral Trading Games (pp. 131-136)
Susan Athey and Ilya Segal
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On Quitting Rights in Mechanism Design (pp. 137-141)
Olivier Compte and Philippe Jehiel
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Decision Theory: New Methods, New Insights

Neuroeconomic Studies of Impulsivity: Now or Just as Soon as Possible? (pp. 142-147)
Paul William Glimcher, Joseph Kable and Kenway Louie
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The Neuroeconomic Theory of Learning (pp. 148-152)
Andrew Caplin and Mark Dean
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Revealing Preferences Graphically: An Old Method Gets a New Tool Kit (pp. 153-158)
Syngjoo Choi, Raymond Fisman, Douglas M. Gale and Shachar Kariv
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Beliefs in the Utility Function

Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns (pp. 159-165)
Markus K. Brunnermeier, Christian Gollier and Jonathan A. Parker
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Experimental Testing of Intrinsic Preferences for NonInstrumental Information (pp. 166-169)
Kfir Eliaz and Andrew Schotter
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Guilt in Games (pp. 170-176)
Pierpaolo Battigalli and Martin Dufwenberg
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Contracts and Fairness

Adding a Stick to the Carrot? The Interaction of Bonuses and Fines (pp. 177-181)
Ernst Fehr and Klaus M. Schmidt
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Incomplete Contracts and Ownership: Some New thoughts (pp. 182-186)
Oliver Hart and John Moore
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Can Contract Theory Explain Social Preferences? (pp. 187-192)
W. Bentley MacLeod
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Search-and-Matching Financial Markets

Liquidity and Risk Management (pp. 193-197)
Nicolae Gârleanu and Lasse Heje Pedersen
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Search in Asset Markets: Market Structure, Liquidity, and Welfare (pp. 198-202)
Ricardo Lagos and Guillaume Rocheteau
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Information Percolation in Large Markets (pp. 203-209)
Darrell Duffie and Gustavo Manso
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Capital Market Frictions

Market Maker Inventories and Stock Prices (pp. 210-214)
Terrence Hendershott and Mark S. Seasholes
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Slow Moving Capital (pp. 215-220)
Mark Mitchell, Lasse Heje Pedersen and Todd Pulvino
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Systemic Illiquidity in the Federal Funds Market (pp. 221-225)
Adam B. Ashcraft and Darrell Duffie
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Habit Persistence and the Macroeconomy

Increasing Income Inequality, External Habits, and Self-Reported Happiness (pp. 226-231)
Karen E. Dynan and Enrichetta Ravina
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Pricing to Habits and the Law of One Price (pp. 232-238)
Morten O. Ravn, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martín Uribe
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Explaining Asset Prices with External Habits and Wage Rigidities in a DSGE Model (pp. 239-243)
Harald Uhlig
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Inaction and Adjustment: Consequences for Households and Firms

Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market (pp. 244-249)
Andrew B. Abel, Janice C. Eberly and Stavros Panageas
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Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D (pp. 250-255)
Nick Bloom
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Investment under Uncertainty with Strategic Debt Service (pp. 256-261)
Suresh Sundaresan and Neng Wang
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Monetary Systems: Transitions and Experiments

The Bank of Amsterdam and the Leap to Central Bank Money (pp. 262-265)
Stephen Quinn and William Roberds
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Backing, the Quantity Theory, and the Transition to the US Dollar, 1723-1850 (pp. 266-270)
Peter L. Rousseau
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The Political Economy of the US Monetary Union: The Civil War Era as a Watershed (pp. 271-275)
David F. Weiman and John A. James
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John Law's System (pp. 276-279)
François R. Velde
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Wars, Finance, and War Finance

The Net Worth of the US Federal Government, 1784-1802 (pp. 280-284)
Farley Grubb
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The Great Financial Crisis of 1914: What Can We Learn from Aldrich–Vreeland Emergency Currency? (pp. 285-289)
William L. Silber
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The McKenna Rule and UK World War I Finance (pp. 290-294)
James M. Nason and Shaun P. Vahey
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How Occupied France Financed Its Own Exploitation in World War II (pp. 295-299)
Filippo Occhino, Kim Oosterlinck and Eugene N. White
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The Transparency of Political Institutions

The Perils of Transparency in Bureaucracies (pp. 300-305)
Alessandro Gavazza and Alessandro Lizzeri
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Decision–Making Procedures for Committees of Careerist Experts (pp. 306-310)
Gilat Levy
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The Transparency of Politics and the Quality of Politicians (pp. 311-315)
Andrea Mattozzi and Antonio Merlo
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Is Foreign Aid Helping?

Aid Effectiveness – Opening the Black Box (pp. 316-321)
François Bourguignon and Mark Sundberg
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Does Aid Affect Governance? (pp. 322-327)
Raghuram Rajan and Arvind Subramanian
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Was Development Assistance a Mistake? (pp. 328-332)
William Easterly
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Exchange Rate Puzzles

The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets (pp. 333-338)
Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo
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If Exchange Rates are Random Walks, Then Almost Everything We Say About Monetary Policy is Wrong (pp. 339-345)
Fernando Alvarez, Andrew Atkeson and Patrick J. Kehoe
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Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle (pp. 346-350)
Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop
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New Approaches to International Trade

Unbalanced Trade (pp. 351-355)
Robert Dekle, Jonathan Eaton and Samuel Kortum
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Trade Flow Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms (pp. 356-361)
Fabio Ghironi and Marc J. Melitz
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Pricing-to-Market in a Ricardian Model of International Trade (pp. 362-367)
Andrew Atkeson and Ariel Burstein
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Globalization and Economic Outcomes for Minority Groups

The Effect of Globalization on the Performance of Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the United States: Does Owners' Race/Ethnicity Matter? (pp. 368-372)
Elizabeth Asiedu and James A. Freeman
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The Effects of Recent Immigration on Racial/Ethnic Labor Market Differentials (pp. 373-377)
Deborah Reed and Sheldon Danziger
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Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Racial Employment Patterns in US Manufacturing (pp. 378-382)
Abera Gelan, Kaye Husbands Fealing and James Peoples
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Differential Impacts of Immigrants on Native Black and White Workers (pp. 383-387)
Paul Ong and Don Mar
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Growth, Education, and Investment in Children

Nonlinearities and Robustness in Growth Regressions (pp. 388-392)
Jenny Minier
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Public Education Expenditures, Taxation, and Growth: Linking Data to Theory (pp. 393-397)
William F. Blankenau, Nicole B. Simpson and Marc Tomljanovich
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Why Do Poor Children Lose Health Insurance in the SCHIP Era? The Role of Family Health (pp. 398-401)
Anne Carroll, Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan and Nancy E. Reichman
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The Effect of Child Gender on Parents' Labor Supply: An Examination of Natives, Immigrants, and their Children (pp. 402-406)
Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia and Jennifer Ward-Batts
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Gender and Labor Market Outcomes

Reaching Equilibrium in the Market for Obstetricians and Gynecologists (pp. 407-411)
Jessica Wolpaw Reyes
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Gender Differences in the Labor Market: Impact of IRCA (pp. 412-416)
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Cynthia Bansak and Steven Raphael
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The Role of Labor Market Intermittency in Explaining Gender Wage Differentials (pp. 417-421)
Julie L. Hotchkiss and M. Melinda Pitts
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Women Helping Women, Men Helping Women? Same-Gender Mentoring, Initial Job Placements, and Early Career Publishing Success for Economics PhDs (pp. 422-426)
Christiana Hilmer and Michael Hilmer
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Medical Innovation and the Social Value of Health Progress

Integrated Insurance Design in the Presence of Multiple Medical Technologies (pp. 427-432)
Dana Goldman and Tomas J. Philipson
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Social Value and the Speed of Innovation (pp. 433-437)
Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel
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The Impact of New Drugs on US Longevity and Medical Expenditure, 1990–2003: Evidence from Longitudinal, Disease-Level Data (pp. 438-443)
Frank R. Lichtenberg
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Empirical Industrial Organization

Identification and Estimation of Bidders' Risk Aversion in First-Price Auctions (pp. 444-448)
Isabelle Perrigne and Quang Vuong
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An Estimate Dynamic Model of Entry, Exit, and Growth in Oligopoly Retail Markets (pp. 449-454)
Victor Aguirregabiria, Pedro Mira and Hernan Roman
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Bounding Revenue Comparisons across Multi-Unit Auction Formats under ε-Best Response (pp. 455-458)
James T. E. Chapman, David McAdams and Harry J. Paarsch
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Linear Regression Estimation of Discrete Choice Models with Nonparametric Distributions of Random Coefficients (pp. 459-463)
Patrick Bajari, Jeremy T. Fox and Stephen P. Ryan
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Behavioral Welfare Economics

Toward Choice-Theoretic Foundations for Behavioral Welfare Economics (pp. 464-470)
B. Douglas Bernheim and Antonio Rangel
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Welfare without Happiness (pp. 471-476)
Faruk Gul and Wolfgang Pesendorfer
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Mistakes in Choice-Based Welfare Analysis (pp. 477-481)
Botond Kőszegi and Matthew Rabin
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Biological Evolution and Economics

Some Evolutionary Economics of Family Partnerships (pp. 482-486)
Theodore C. Bergstrom
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Habits, Peers, and Happiness: An Evolutionary Perspective (pp. 487-491)
Luis Rayo and Gary S. Becker
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Why do We Die? Economics, Biology and Aging (pp. 492-495)
Arthur J. Robson and Hillard S. Kaplan
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The Evolution of Intertemporal Preferences (pp. 496-500)
Arthur J. Robson and Larry Samuelson
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The Market and Pre-Market for Graduate Students in Economics

Is There An Insider Advantage in Getting Tenure? (pp. 501-505)
Paul Oyer
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The Search for Economics Talent: Doctoral Completion and Research Productivity (pp. 506-511)
Wayne A. Grove and Stephen Wu
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What Does Performance in Graduate School Predict? Graduate Economics Education and Student Outcomes (pp. 512-520)
Susan Athey, Lawrence F. Katz, Alan B. Krueger, Steven Levitt and James Poterba
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Awards

Awards

John Bates Clark Award (pp. 521-522)
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Reports

Reports

Minutes of the Annual Meeting (pp. 523-524)
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Minutes of the Executive Committee Meetings (pp. 525-533)
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Secretary (pp. 534-537)
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Treasurer (pp. 538-541)
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Editor, American Economic Review (pp. 542-554)
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Editor, Journal of Economic Literature (pp. 555-557)
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Editor, Journal of Economic Perspectives (pp. 558-559)
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Director, Job Openings for Economists (pp. 560-562)
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Committee on Economic Education (pp. 563-565)
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Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession (pp. 566-572)
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Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession (pp. 573-580)
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Committee on Economic Statistics (pp. 581-582)
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Representative to the International Economic Association (page 583)
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Search Committee for the Editor, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (page 584)
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Search Committee for the Editor, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics (page 585)
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Search Committee for the Editor, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (page 586)
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Search Committee for the Editor, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (page 587)
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Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics (page 588)
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American Economic Review


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