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American Economic Review: Vol. 90 No. 4 (September 2000)

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Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond

Article Citation

Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond." American Economic Review, 90(4): 806-828.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.90.4.806

Abstract

This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime, with reduced population growth and sustained income growth.

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Authors

Galor, Oded (Brown U and Hebrew U)
Weil, David N. (Brown U)

JEL Classifications

O41: One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
J11: Demographic Trends and Forecasts; General Migration
O11: Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development


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