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American Economic Review: Vol. 89 No. 3 (June 1999)
AER Volume. 89, Issue 3 | 
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Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation
Article Citation
Shachar, Ron, and
Barry Nalebuff. 1999. "Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation."
American Economic Review,
89(3): 525-547.
DOI: 10.1257/aer.89.3.525
DOI: 10.1257/aer.89.3.525
Abstract
Using state-by-state voting data for U.S. presidential elections, the authors observe that voter turnout is a positive function of predicted closeness. To explain the strategic component of political participation, they develop a follow-the-leader model. Political leaders expend effort according to their chance of being pivotal, which depends on the expected closeness of the race (at both state and national levels) and how voters respond to their effort. Structural estimation supports this model. For example, a 1 percent increase in the predicted closeness at the state level stimulates leaders' efforts, which increases turnout by 0.34 percent.
Article Full-Text Access
Full-text Article
Authors
Shachar, Ron (Tel Aviv U)
Nalebuff, Barry (Yale U)
Nalebuff, Barry (Yale U)
JEL Classifications
D72: Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
