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American Economic Review: Vol. 104 No. 5 (May 2014)

Front Matter (pp. i-viii)
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President's Foreword (pp. xi-xii)
William D. Nordhaus
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Editor's Introduction (page xiii)
William R. Johnson
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Papers

Richard T. Ely Lecture

Retirement Security in an Aging Population (pp. 1-30)
James M. Poterba
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What's Natural? Key Macroeconomic Parameters after the Great Recession

Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession (pp. 31-36)
Mark W. Watson
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The Natural Rate of Interest and Its Usefulness for Monetary Policy (pp. 37-43)
Robert Barsky, Alejandro Justiniano and Leonardo Melosi
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The Future of US Economic Growth (pp. 44-49)
John G. Fernald and Charles I. Jones
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Recessions and Recoveries

Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes (pp. 50-55)
Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
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Why Has US Policy Uncertainty Risen since 1960? (pp. 56-60)
Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Brandice Canes-Wrone, Steven J. Davis and Jonathan Rodden
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The Role of Policy in the Great Recession and the Weak Recovery (pp. 61-66)
John B. Taylor
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Is Neglect Benign? The Case of United States Housing Finance Policy

Housing Assignment with Restrictions: Theory and Evidence from Stanford University's Campus (pp. 67-72)
Tim Landvoigt, Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider
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Why Is Housing Finance Still Stuck in Such a Primitive Stage? (pp. 73-76)
Robert J. Shiller
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The Mortgage Mess, the Press, and the Politics of Inattention (pp. 77-81)
Andrew Caplin and Roy Lowrance
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Mandated Risk Retention in Mortgage Securitization: An Economist's View (pp. 82-87)
Paul Willen
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Sovereign Debt Crisis

Is It Too Late to Bail Out the Troubled Countries in the Eurozone? (pp. 88-93)
Juan Carlos Conesa and Timothy J. Kehoe
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Renegotiation Policies in Sovereign Defaults (pp. 94-100)
Cristina Arellano and Yan Bai
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Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions (pp. 101-06)
Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi and Gita Gopinath
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Perspectives on Consumption

The Distribution of Wealth and the MPC: Implications of New European Data (pp. 107-11)
Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek and Kiichi Tokuoka
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Measuring How Fiscal Shocks Affect Durable Spending in Recessions and Expansions (pp. 112-15)
David Berger and Joseph Vavra
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A Tale of Two Stimulus Payments: 2001 versus 2008 (pp. 116-21)
Greg Kaplan and Giovanni L. Violante
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New Directions and Opportunities for Research on Consumption with the PSID

Consumption Inequality over the Last Half Century: Some Evidence Using the New PSID Consumption Measure (pp. 122-26)
Orazio Attanasio and Luigi Pistaferri
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Health, Human Capital, and Life Cycle Labor Supply (pp. 127-31)
Charles Hokayem and James P. Ziliak
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Estimates of Annual Consumption Expenditures and Its Major Components in the PSID in Comparison to the CE (pp. 132-35)
Patricia Andreski, Geng Li, Mehmet Zahid Samancioglu and Robert Schoeni
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The Intergenerational Correlation of Consumption Expenditures (pp. 136-40)
Kerwin Kofi Charles, Sheldon Danziger, Geng Li and Robert Schoeni
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Big Data in Macroeconomics: New Insights from Large Administrative Datasets

Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility (pp. 141-47)
Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez and Nicholas Turner
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How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners? (pp. 148-53)
Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan and Jae Song
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Year-End Tax Planning of Top Management: Evidence from High-Frequency Payroll Data (pp. 154-58)
Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Søren Leth-Petersen and Peer Ebbesen Skov
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Macro Development with Micro Data

Macro-perspective on Asset Grants Programs: Occupational and Wealth Mobility (pp. 159-64)
Francisco J. Buera, Joseph P. Kaboski and Yongseok Shin
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Agricultural Productivity Differences across Countries (pp. 165-70)
Douglas Gollin, David Lagakos and Michael E. Waugh
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The Aggregate Impact of Household Saving and Borrowing Constraints: Designing a Field Experiment in Uganda (pp. 171-76)
Joseph P. Kaboski, Molly Lipscomb and Virgiliu Midrigan
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Theory and Measurement of Intangible Capital

A Reassessment of Real Business Cycle Theory (pp. 177-82)
Ellen R. McGrattan and Edward C. Prescott
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Can Intangible Capital Explain Cyclical Movements in the Labor Wedge? (pp. 183-88)
François Gourio and Leena Rudanko
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The Value and Ownership of Intangible Capital (pp. 189-94)
Andrea L. Eisfeldt and Dimitris Papanikolaou
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Econometrics: Identification and Structural Estimation

Weak Identification in Maximum Likelihood: A Question of Information (pp. 195-99)
Isaiah Andrews and Anna Mikusheva
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Physician Payment Reform and Hospital Referrals (pp. 200-205)
Kate Ho and Ariel Pakes
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Estimation of an Education Production Function under Random Assignment with Selection (pp. 206-11)
Eleanor Jawon Choi, Hyungsik Roger Moon and Geert Ridder
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Treatment Effects and Informative Missingness with an Application to Bank Recapitalization Programs (pp. 212-17)
Angela Vossmeyer
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Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging

The Determinants of the Macroeconomic Implications of Aging (pp. 218-23)
Louise Sheiner
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Aging in Europe: Reforms, International Diversification, and Behavioral Reactions (pp. 224-29)
Axel Börsch-Supan, Klaus Härtl and Alexander Ludwig
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The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy: Using the Future Elderly Model to Estimate Implications for Social Security and Medicare (pp. 230-33)
Dana P. Goldman and Peter R. Orszag
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Macroeconomic Consequences of Population Aging in the United States: Overview of a National Academy Report (pp. 234-39)
Ronald D. Lee
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Innovation, Labor, and Wealth

Disparities in Wealth Accumulation and Loss from the Great Recession and Beyond (pp. 240-44)
Signe-Mary McKernan, Caroline Ratcliffe, Eugene Steuerle and Sisi Zhang
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Gender and Business Outcomes of Black and Hispanic New Entrepreneurs in the United States (pp. 245-49)
Marie T. Mora and Alberto Dávila
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Does the US Labor Market Reward International Experience? (pp. 250-54)
Susan Pozo
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Entrepreneurial Innovation: Killer Apps in the iPhone Ecosystem (pp. 255-59)
Pai-Ling Yin, Jason P. Davis and Yulia Muzyrya
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Developing Country Lessons for Advanced Economy Growth

Learning from the Doers: Developing Country Lessons for Advanced Economy Growth (pp. 260-65)
Anusha Chari and Peter Blair Henry
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Forty Years of Leverage: What Have We Learned about Sovereign Debt? (pp. 266-71)
Peter Boone and Simon Johnson
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Demand and Defective Growth Patterns: The Role of the Tradable and Non-tradable Sectors in an Open Economy (pp. 272-77)
Sandile Hlatshwayo and Michael Spence
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The Demand for Insurance in Developing Countries

Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (pp. 278-83)
Mark R. Rosenzweig and Christopher Udry
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Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment (pp. 284-90)
Shawn Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
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Bundling Health Insurance and Microfinance in India: There Cannot Be Adverse Selection If There Is No Demand (pp. 291-97)
Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Richard Hornbeck
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Gains from Trade When Firms Matter

Together at Last: Trade Costs, Demand Structure, and Welfare (pp. 298-303)
Monika Mrázová and J. Peter Neary
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Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Selection (pp. 304-09)
Antonella Nocco, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Matteo Salto
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Welfare and Trade without Pareto (pp. 310-16)
Keith Head, Thierry Mayer and Mathias Thoenig
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Missing Gains from Trade? (pp. 317-21)
Marc J. Melitz and Stephen J. Redding
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The Impact of Health Insurance Expansions on Other Social Safety Net Programs

The Impact of Medicaid on Labor Market Activity and Program Participation: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment (pp. 322-28)
Katherine Baicker, Amy Finkelstein, Jae Song and Sarah Taubman
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Disability Insurance and Health Insurance Reform: Evidence from Massachusetts (pp. 329-35)
Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen and Alexander Strand
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The Accelerated Benefits Demonstration: Impacts on the Employment of Disability Insurance Beneficiaries (pp. 336-41)
Michelle Stegman Bailey and Robert R. Weathers II
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Marriage, Divorce, and Female Labor Force Participation

Unilateral Divorce, the Decreasing Gender Gap, and Married Women's Labor Force Participation (pp. 342-47)
Raquel Fernández and Joyce Wong
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Marry Your Like: Assortative Mating and Income Inequality (pp. 348-53)
Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner, Georgi Kocharkov and Cezar Santos
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Labor Supply and Household Dynamics (pp. 354-59)
Maurizio Mazzocco, Claudia Ruiz and Shintaro Yamaguchi
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Gender: The Economics of Gender

The Myth of Immigrant Women as Secondary Workers: Evidence from Canada (pp. 360-64)
Alícia Adserà and Ana M. Ferrer
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All for One? Family Size and Children's Educational Distribution under Credit Constraints (pp. 365-69)
Jeanne Lafortune and Soohyung Lee
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Are Female Supervisors More Female-Friendly? (pp. 370-75)
Steven Bednar and Dora Gicheva
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Race and Marriage in the Labor Market: A Discrimination Correspondence Study in a Developing Country (pp. 376-80)
Eva O. Arceo-Gomez and Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez
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Inequality in the Future

The Declining Fortunes of the Young since 2000 (pp. 381-86)
Paul Beaudry, David A. Green and Benjamin M. Sand
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Trends in Earnings Differentials across College Majors and the Changing Task Composition of Jobs (pp. 387-93)
Joseph G. Altonji, Lisa B. Kahn and Jamin D. Speer
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Return of the Solow Paradox? IT, Productivity, and Employment in US Manufacturing (pp. 394-99)
Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson and Brendan Price
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Policy Interventions and Educational Outcomes

Ability-Tracking, Instructional Time, and Better Pedagogy: The Effect of Double-Dose Algebra on Student Achievement (pp. 400-405)
Kalena E. Cortes and Joshua S. Goodman
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Using School Choice Lotteries to Test Measures of School Effectiveness (pp. 406-11)
David J. Deming
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Gender and Race Heterogeneity: The Impact of Students with Limited English on Native Students' Performance (pp. 412-17)
Timothy M. Diette and Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere
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Frontiers of Market Design

Implementation Details for Frequent Batch Auctions: Slowing Down Markets to the Blink of an Eye (pp. 418-24)
Eric Budish, Peter Cramton and John Shim
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Getting More Organs for Transplantation (pp. 425-30)
Judd B. Kessler and Alvin E. Roth
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Mechanism Design in Large Games: Incentives and Privacy (pp. 431-35)
Michael Kearns, Mallesh M. Pai, Aaron Roth and Jonathan Ullman
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Investment Incentives in Labor Market Matching (pp. 436-41)
John William Hatfield, Fuhito Kojima and Scott Duke Kominers
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Market Design for Auction Markets

The VCG Auction in Theory and Practice (pp. 442-45)
Hal R. Varian and Christopher Harris
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Market Design and the Evolution of the Combinatorial Clock Auction (pp. 446-51)
Lawrence M. Ausubel and Oleg V. Baranov
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The Continuous Combinatorial Auction Architecture (pp. 452-56)
Charles R. Plott, Hsing-Yang Lee and Travis Maron
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Theory of Persuasion

Costly Persuasion (pp. 457-62)
Matthew Gentzkow and Emir Kamenica
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How Sharing Information Can Garble Experts' Advice (pp. 463-68)
Matthew Elliott, Benjamin Golub and Andrei Kirilenko
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Interim Bayesian Persuasion: First Steps (pp. 469-74)
Eduardo Perez-Richet
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Economics of the Internet and Mobile Computing

Mobile Computing: The Next Platform Rivalry (pp. 475-80)
Timothy Bresnahan and Shane Greenstein
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Trading Dollars for Dollars: The Price of Attention Online and Offline (pp. 481-88)
Matthew Gentzkow
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Growth, Adoption, and Use of Mobile E-Commerce (pp. 489-94)
Liran Einav, Jonathan Levin, Igor Popov and Neel Sundaresan
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Neuroeconomics of Stochastic Choice

Stochastic Choice: An Optimizing Neuroeconomic Model (pp. 495-500)
Michael Woodford
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Benefits of Neuroeconomic Modeling: New Policy Interventions and Predictors of Preference (pp. 501-06)
Ian Krajbich, Bastiaan Oud and Ernst Fehr
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Rational Attention and Adaptive Coding: A Puzzle and a Solution (pp. 507-13)
Camillo Padoa-Schioppa and Aldo Rustichini
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Economics Education in the Digital Age: The Implications of Online Technologies and MOOCs

(Dis)organization and Success in an Economics MOOC (pp. 514-18)
Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo
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The Industrial Organization of Online Education (pp. 519-22)
Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok
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Equalizing Superstars: The Internet and the Democratization of Education (pp. 523-27)
Daron Acemoglu, David Laibson and John A. List
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The Economics of Online Postsecondary Education: MOOCs, Nonselective Education, and Highly Selective Education (pp. 528-33)
Caroline M. Hoxby
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Discounting for the Long Run

Discounting and Growth (pp. 534-37)
Christian Gollier
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Declining Discount Rates (pp. 538-43)
Maureen L. Cropper, Mark C. Freeman, Ben Groom and William A. Pizer
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Fat Tails and the Social Cost of Carbon (pp. 544-46)
Martin L. Weitzman
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On Not Revisiting Official Discount Rates: Institutional Inertia and the Social Cost of Carbon (pp. 547-51)
Cass R. Sunstein
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Climate Change Policy after Kyoto

Selected International Aspects of Carbon Taxation (pp. 552-56)
Charles E. McLure Jr.
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The Costs and Consequences of Clean Air Act Regulation of CO2 from Power Plants (pp. 557-62)
Dallas Burtraw, Josh Linn, Karen Palmer and Anthony Paul
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Tax Policy Issues in Designing a Carbon Tax (pp. 563-68)
Donald B. Marron and Eric J. Toder
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How Effective Are US Renewable Energy Subsidies in Cutting Greenhouse Gases? (pp. 569-74)
Brian C. Murray, Maureen L. Cropper, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye and John M. Reilly
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Energy in the Developing World

Powering Up China: Income Distributions and Residential Electricity Consumption (pp. 575-80)
Maximilian Auffhammer and Catherine D. Wolfram
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The Economic Cost of Global Fuel Subsidies (pp. 581-85)
Lucas W. Davis
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Why Are Power Plants in India Less Efficient Than Power Plants in the United States? (pp. 586-90)
Hei Sing (Ron) Chan, Maureen L. Cropper and Kabir Malik
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Proceedings

Minutes of the Annual Business Meeting: Philadelphia, PA, January 4, 2014 (pp. 593-94)
Peter L. Rousseau
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Report of the Secretary (pp. 595-98)
Peter L. Rousseau
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Report of the Treasurer (pp. 599-602)
Peter L. Rousseau
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American Economic Association Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics (pp. 603-07)
Charles E. Scott and John J. Siegfried
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List of Online Reports (page 608)
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Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee: Chicago, IL, April 12, 2013 (pp. 609-613)
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Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee: Philadelphia, PA, January 2, 2014 (pp. 614-620)
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Review (pp. 621-631)
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Report of the Editor: Journal of Economic Literature (pp. 632-634)
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Report of the Editor: Journal of Economic Perspectives (pp. 635-637)
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Report of The Editor: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (pp. 638-644)
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (pp. 645-648)
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Report of the Editor: Macroeconomics (pp. 649-653)
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Report of the Editor: Microeconomics (pp. 654-656)
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Report of the Director: Job Openings for Economists (pp. 657-659)
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Report: Committee on Economic Education (pp. 660-663)
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Report: Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession (CSWEP) (pp. 664-681)
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Report: Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession (CSMGEP) (pp. 682-696)
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Report: American Economic Association Committee on Statistics (AEAStat) (page 697)
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Report: Committee on Government Relations (pp. 698-701)
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Report: Ad Hoc Search Committee for the Editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (page 703)
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