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American Economic Review: Vol. 103 No. 3 (May 2013)

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The Psychology of Tail Events: Progress and Challenges

Article Citation

Barberis, Nicholas. 2013. "The Psychology of Tail Events: Progress and Challenges." American Economic Review, 103(3): 611-16.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.3.611

Abstract

Over the past decade there has been a surge of interest in "tail events," or rare, high-impact events. In this article, I start by summarizing some recent progress in our understanding of the psychology of tail events. I suggest that much of this progress has centered on the concept of "probability weighting" and, in particular, on applications of this concept in various fields of economics. I then describe some major open questions in this area.

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Authors

Barberis, Nicholas (Yale U)

JEL Classifications

D81: Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D83: Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief
G22: Insurance; Insurance Companies


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