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American Economic Review: Vol. 103 No. 3 (May 2013)

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Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

Article Citation

Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., and Matthew D. Shapiro. 2013. "Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?" American Economic Review, 103(3): 147-52.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.3.147

Abstract

This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. We construct a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. We then compare forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.

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Author Disclosure Statement(s) (22.02 KB) | Online Appendix (60.68 KB) | Download Data Set (111.68 KB)

Authors

Dominguez, Kathryn M. E. (U MI)
Shapiro, Matthew D. (U MI)

JEL Classifications

C53: Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
E23: Macroeconomics: Production
E27: Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32: Business Fluctuations; Cycles
G01: Financial Crises


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