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American Economic Review: Vol. 102 No. 3 (May 2012)

AER Volume. 102, Issue 3 | Previous ArticleNext Article

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Assumptions Matter: Model Uncertainty and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment

Article Citation

Durlauf, Steven N., Chao Fu, and Salvador Navarro. 2012. "Assumptions Matter: Model Uncertainty and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment." American Economic Review, 102(3): 487-92.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.102.3.487

Abstract

This paper examines how estimates of the deterrent effect of capital punishment depend on alternate choices of assumptions concerning the homicide process. Specific models of the homicide process represent bundles of these assumptions, which involve the unobserved heterogeneity, the relevant penalty probabilities for homicide choices, possible cross-polity parameter variation, and exchangeability between polity-time pairs that do and do not experience positive numbers of murders. We demonstrate how various assumptions have driven the conflicting findings from studies on capital punishment, and isolate a particular set of assumptions that are required to find a positive deterrent effect.

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Authors

Durlauf, Steven N. (U WI)
Fu, Chao (U WI)
Navarro, Salvador (Social Science Centre, U Western Ontario)

JEL Classifications

K42: Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
C52: Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection