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American Economic Review: Vol. 102 No. 3 (May 2012)
AER Volume. 102, Issue 3 | 
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On the Use of Holdout Samples for Model Selection
Article Citation
Schorfheide, Frank, and
Kenneth I. Wolpin. 2012. "On the Use of Holdout Samples for Model Selection."
American Economic Review,
102(3): 477-81.
DOI: 10.1257/aer.102.3.477
DOI: 10.1257/aer.102.3.477
Abstract
Researchers often hold out data from the estimation of econometric models to use for external validation. However, the use of holdout samples is suboptimal from a Bayesian perspective, which prescribes using the entire sample to form posterior model weights. This paper examines a possible rationale for the use of holdout samples: data-inspired modifications of structural models are likely to lead to an exaggeration of model fit. The use of holdout samples can, in principle, set an incentive for the modeler not to exaggerate model fit.
Article Full-Text Access
Full-text Article
Authors
Schorfheide, Frank (U PA)
Wolpin, Kenneth I. (U PA)
Wolpin, Kenneth I. (U PA)
JEL Classifications
C52: Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
