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Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 16 No. 4 (Fall 2002)
JEP Volume. 16, Issue 4 | 
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The NAIRU in Theory and Practice
Article Citation
Ball, Laurence, and
N. Gregory Mankiw. 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice ."
The Journal of Economic Perspectives,
16(4): 115-136.
DOI: 10.1257/089533002320951000
DOI: 10.1257/089533002320951000
Abstract
This paper discusses the NAIRU--the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. It first considers the role of the NAIRU concept in business cycle theory, arguing that this concept is implicit in any model in which monetary policy influences both inflation and unemployment. The exact value of the NAIRU is hard to measure, however, in part because it changes over time. The paper then discusses why the NAIRU changes and, in particular, why it fell in the United States during the 1990s. The most promising hypothesis is that the decline in the NAIRU is attributable to the acceleration in productivity growth.
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Authors
Ball, Laurence
Mankiw, N. Gregory
Mankiw, N. Gregory
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