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American Economic Review: Vol. 93 No. 4 (September 2003)
AER Volume. 93, Issue 4 |
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International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors
Article Citation
Kose, M. Ayhan,
Christopher Otrok, and
Charles H. Whiteman. 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors."
The American Economic Review,
93(4): 1216-1239.
DOI: 10.1257/000282803769206278
DOI: 10.1257/000282803769206278
Abstract
The paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business-cycle fluctuations across countries, regions, and the world. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) in a 60-country sample covering seven regions of the world. The results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries, providing evidence for a world business cycle. We find that region-specific factors play only a minor role in explaining fluctuations in economic activity. We also document similarities and differences across regions, countries, and aggregates. (JEL F41, E32, C11, C32)
Article Full-Text Access
Full-text Article
Authors
Kose, M. Ayhan
Otrok, Christopher
Whiteman, Charles H.
Otrok, Christopher
Whiteman, Charles H.

