This website uses cookies.

By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance and traffic. For more information on our use of cookies, please see our Privacy Policy.

  1. Home
  2. Journals
  3. American Economic Review
  4. June 1999
  5. Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation

American Economic Review

ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)

Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation

  • Ron Shachar
  • Barry Nalebuff
American Economic Review
vol. 89, no. 3, June 1999
(pp. 525–547)
Download Full Text PDF

Abstract

Using state-by-state voting data for U.S. presidential elections, the authors observe that voter turnout is a positive function of predicted closeness. To explain the strategic component of political participation, they develop a follow-the-leader model. Political leaders expend effort according to their chance of being pivotal, which depends on the expected closeness of the race (at both state and national levels) and how voters respond to their effort. Structural estimation supports this model. For example, a 1 percent increase in the predicted closeness at the state level stimulates leaders' efforts, which increases turnout by 0.34 percent.

Citation

Shachar, Ron, and Barry Nalebuff. 1999. "Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation." American Economic Review, 89 (3): 525–547. DOI: 10.1257/aer.89.3.525

JEL Classification

  • D72 Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior