Replication data for: What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) John Beshears; James J. Choi; Andreas Fuster; David Laibson; Brigitte C. Madrian
Version: View help for Version V1
Name | File Type | Size | Last Modified |
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Feedback.xls | application/vnd.ms-excel | 28 KB | 10/11/2019 02:35:PM |
HS10.xls | application/vnd.ms-excel | 914.5 KB | 10/11/2019 02:36:PM |
HS10_estimates.csv | text/plain | 335 bytes | 10/11/2019 02:35:PM |
HS50.xls | application/vnd.ms-excel | 2.9 MB | 10/11/2019 02:36:PM |
HS50_estimates.csv | text/plain | 10 KB | 10/11/2019 02:35:PM |
LICENSE.txt | text/plain | 14.6 KB | 10/11/2019 02:36:PM |
README.pdf | application/pdf | 138.1 KB | 10/11/2019 02:36:PM |
processCoefficients.xlsx | application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet | 9.3 KB | 10/11/2019 02:36:PM |
samplePlots.xlsx | application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet | 1.7 MB | 10/11/2019 02:36:PM |
subjxs.csv | text/plain | 66 MB | 10/11/2019 02:36:PM |
Project Citation:
Beshears, John, Choi, James J., Fuster, Andreas, Laibson, David, and Madrian, Brigitte C. Replication data for: What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2013. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-11. https://doi.org/10.3886/E112636V1
Project Description
Summary:
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Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial mean reversion. Half of the subjects see a version of this process in which the momentum and partial mean reversion unfold over ten periods ("fast"), while the other subjects see a version with dynamics that unfold over 50 periods ("slow"). Typical subjects recognize most of the mean reversion of the fast process and none of the mean reversion of the slow process.
Scope of Project
JEL Classification:
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C53 Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
D84 Expectations; Speculations
C53 Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
D84 Expectations; Speculations
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