Replication data for: Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Antonio Ciccone
Version: View help for Version V1
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Data-Do_AEJApp-2010-0064 | 10/12/2019 03:46:PM | ||
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Project Citation:
Ciccone, Antonio. Replication data for: Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2011. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E113801V1
Project Description
Summary:
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Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)
Scope of Project
JEL Classification:
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D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
O47 Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
O47 Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
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